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Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020
 
...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...20.5N 89.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF MERIDA MEXICO
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Herrero
to Rio Lagartos.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Arepika Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Tropical storm conditions in the watch area in Mexico could occur
through this afternoon.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 89.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the center will move back over the southern Gulf of
Mexico this evening, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday,
and be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday evening.
 
Satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate that
Cristobal's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph
(65 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.  An elevated observing site from Isla Perez, north
of the Yucatan Peninsula, recently reported sustained winds of 43
mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Aripeka to Marco Island including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
Grand Isle to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Indian Pass to Aripeka...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs to Indian Pass including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today within the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the Yucatan Peninsula.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
along the northern Gulf coast beginning early Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:
 
Through Wednesday morning, for portions of the eastern and central
Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast.
Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast.  Farther north across the Mid-Mississippi Valley,
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches,
are expected.  Rises along smaller-order streams are possible
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This degree of rainfall is
expected to lead to flash flooding.
 
Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 4
to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.
 
Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Oaxaca...Additional 4
to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 12 inches.
 
Southern Guatemala, coastal portions of Chiapas, and El
Salvador...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm total amounts of
35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
 
Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.
 
Rainfall across Southeast Mexico and northern Central America would
continue the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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