ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Convection around the center briefly dissipated earlier tonight, but has since redeveloped with cloud tops colder than -70 C. Octave has a ragged appearance, and it is apparent that some northeasterly shear is affecting the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-A overpass showed several wind vectors of 35-40 kt, and therefore the initial advisory intensity has been raised to 40 kt. Octave has slowed to a crawl tonight, with an initial motion of 270/01 kt. Weak steering flow will prevail around the cyclone for the next several days, and a meandering motion is expected throughout the forecast period with a total net motion of only about 100 n mi during that time. The official NHC forecast is between the previous forecast and the track consensus guidance, which resulted in only a slight westward shift in the track beyond day 3. The intermittent bursts of convection are suggesting that the system has been trying to fight off a dry environment. In addition, the shear currently affecting the cyclone is expected to change little in the next 12-18 hours. These moderately negative factors offsetting the warm SSTs should cause Octave to not change much in intensity today. By later tonight, even drier air is expected to begin entraining into Octave's circulation, and at the same time 20-25 kt southeasterly winds aloft will begin to shear the cyclone. These increasingly hostile conditions should cause weakening to begin, and Octave is forecast to become a remnant low between 48-72 hours. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and near the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 9.9N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 10.3N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 11.0N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 11.2N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 11.0N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 10.6N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z 10.9N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0600Z 11.2N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:10:14 UTC