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Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
100 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA NOW OVER MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN LAZARO CARDENAS
AND MANZANILLO...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 103.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 103.1 West.  Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during
the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Narda
will move over or near portions of the western and southwestern
coasts of Mexico through tonight, then emerge over the Pacific on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected as the center moves over land, and
Narda is forecast to weaken to a depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are now occuring within the
warning area and should continue for the next few hours, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to
Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday
night.  Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from
Oaxaca to Nayarit.  This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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