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Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1200 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 108.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto
Cortes to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.  Additional watches or warnings may be required
for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 108.3 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn to the
west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later this
morning and this motion should continue through tonight.  A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and then
move along the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength by tonight as it
approaches the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend:

Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts around 6 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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