ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 103.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo
Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 103.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Lorena is expected to become a hurricane on Friday as it approaches
the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the warning area later today or tonight, and then are
expected to spread northward along the coast through Thursday
night.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco.  This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN