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Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL STORM LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO BY
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 100.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The
tropical storm is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).
A northwestward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for
the next couple of days. Lorena is expected to move near the
southwest coast of Mexico by Thursday.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Lorena's maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued gradual strengthening is anticipated during the
next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the southern
portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday and
could then spread northward along the coast through late Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco.  This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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