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Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 110.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a
Tropical Storm Warning on Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to
Los Barriles.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
mainland from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino and a Tropical Storm Watch
from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Los Barriles

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia
Kino

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro
* Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan
Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito
* Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.3 West. Lorena is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general motion toward
the north-northwest is expected during the next couple of days.  On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move along
the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of California
today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across
the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions
are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the
hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area by tonight.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts
around 8 inches.

Sonora...3 to 6 inches.

Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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