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Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
west coast of Baja California del Sur north of Santa Fe to Puerto
Cortes.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
east coast of Baja California del Sur north of San Evaristo to
Loreto, and for the west coast of Baja California del Sur north of
Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito.

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Punta Mita.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto
Cortes to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.  Additional watches or warnings may be required
for portions of this area on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 107.7 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn to the
west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, and
this motion should continue through Friday night.  A turn toward
the northwest is expected on Saturday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast
of the Baja California peninsula tonight, pass near or over the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday, and
move along the west coast of the peninsula Friday night and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches
the Baja California peninsula on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by Friday morning.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend:

Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts around 6 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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