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HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO
LOS BARRILES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
MAINLAND FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA KINO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO LOS BARRILES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
* MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW  15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 110.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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