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HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA
ROSALIA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO PUERTO CORTES
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES
TO CABO SAN LAZARO
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA.  ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
ON SATURDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 109.7W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  15SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 109.7W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 109.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.6N 111.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.4N 112.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 31.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 109.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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