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TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ
TO SAN EVARISTO...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA FE TO
PUERTO CORTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.4N 108.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.8N 109.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.5N 111.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.4N 112.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.0N 114.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 107.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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