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TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE  20SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 20NE  40SE  70SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 10NE  20SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  70SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 105.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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