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Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The circulation of Lorena has been interacting with the high terrain
of the Baja California peninsula for the past 12 hours and most
likely the inner core has been disrupted. The center is very
difficult to locate on conventional imagery, but it is estimated to
be near the area of the deepest convection in the Gulf of
California. Based on continuity and Dvorak estimates, the initial
intensity is kept at 65 kt at this time. Given that a portion of
Lorena's circulation will continue to interact with land and that
the shear is forecast to increase significantly, gradual weakening
is anticipated. However, the intensity forecast is uncertain since
we do not know how much the inner core was disrupted by land. An Air
Force plane will investigate Lorena later today and should provide
a better assessment of Lorena's winds.

Since we do not have a good center location, the initial motion is
uncertain but the best estimate is toward the north or 350 degrees
at 10 kt. The steering currents associated with a subtropical high
over Mexico and an approaching mid-latitude trough should force
Lorena on a northerly track across the Gulf of California, and bring
the center of Lorena to mainland Mexico in about 24 hours. Once the
center moves inland rapid weakening is anticipated. The NHC forecast
is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the
corrected consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash
floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and
northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to
bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late
this weekend and early next week.

2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce tropical-storm-force
winds over a portion of the east coast of the Baja California
peninsula today. These conditions are expected to reach portions of
mainland Mexico tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 25.6N 110.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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