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Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Lorena made landfall over the southeastern portion of Baja
California Sur several hours ago, and it has now moved back over the
warm waters of the Gulf of California.  Around the time Lorena
made landfall, an observation near La Ventana, Mexico, reported
sustained winds just below hurricane-force and a minimum pressure of
986 mb when it was in the eye of the hurricane.  The satellite
appearance of the cyclone has degraded some because of the land
interaction, and an eye is no longer apparent in geostationary
images.  The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 65 kt
based on the TAFB Dvorak classification.  An ASCAT-C pass confirmed
that Lorena is a compact hurricane, with its tropical-storm-force
winds extending only out to 40 n mi from the center.

Lorena has been a challenging system to forecast as the models have
not had a good handle on its future track.  The models this cycle
have all shifted to the east and now show a landfall in mainland
Mexico tonight or Sunday.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the right to be in better agreement with the latest model
solutions, but this forecast still lies on the western side of the
guidance envelope.  If this model trend continues, additional shifts
to the right might be needed.  Based on this change, the Government
of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of
northwestern Mexico.

The hurricane is expected to maintain its intensity today as it
remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, but a
pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and land interaction
with mainland Mexico should cause a quick weakening on Sunday and
dissipation is likely to occur on Monday.  The NHC intensity
forecast is lower than the previous one, but still lies on the high
side of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy
rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible during the next
couple of days in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico.
Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for
heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and
early next week.

2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce hurricane-force winds
over a portion of the southern Baja California today, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect.  It could also bring hurricane
conditions to portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 24.6N 110.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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