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Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

The deep convection that formed earlier today to the west of the
center of Mario is gradually decreasing in both intensity and
coverage, and the system is likely on its way to becoming a remnant
low.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier
ASCAT data that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds.

Mario is headed for cool waters, and it should be crossing the 26 C
isotherm on early Monday.  These cool waters and a dry and stable
air mass should cause the deep convection to dissipate, and Mario
will likely become a remnant low in about 12 hours.  All of the
models show the remnant low opening up into a trough over the
central Baja California peninsula in about 2 days. The NHC intensity
forecast is based largely on the GFS and ECMWF guidance, and now
shows dissipation by 48 hours when the cyclone is forecast to enter
a region of strong westerly wind shear.

Satellite fixes indicate that the depression continues to move
north-northwestward at 9 kt.  Mario, or its remnants, are expected
to move slower to the north-northwest and then the north during the
next day or so within the low-level flow until it dissipates.  The
NHC track forecast is close to the consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 23.4N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 24.6N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/0000Z 26.0N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1200Z 27.1N 114.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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