ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Kiko continues to gradually lose strength. Satellite images show a less organized central dense overcast feature with no evidence of an eye. There is a sharp edge in the convective pattern on the north side of the system, suggestive of continued northerly wind shear. The initial wind speed is lowered to 75 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Kiko remains a very compact system with its tropical-storm-force winds and rain bands extending only about 50 n mi from the center. Additional weakening seems likely during the next 24 hours due to the continued effects of northerly shear, dry air, and marginally warm SSTs, and the NHC forecast shows Kiko falling below hurricane intensity during that time. The models show Kiko re-strengthening a little or maintaining its intensity on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves over slightly warmer waters and into a region of lower shear. However, weakening should resume by the end of the week when the cyclone moves into a less favorable atmospheric environment. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Kiko continues to only crawl westward in relatively weak steering currents. A ridge building to the northwest of Kiko over the central Pacific is forecast to steer the cyclone west-southwestward on Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken allowing Kiko to turn westward or west-northwestward later this week, followed by another turn to the southwest by the end of the forecast period. Regardless of the details of the track forecast, the bottom line is that Kiko is expected to continue its slow trek for several more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 17.2N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 17.2N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:10:04 UTC