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Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Juliette's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several
hours.  If anything, the spiral bands appear to have improved a bit
in the western portion of the cyclone.  However, subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have not increased, and the
initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory.

During the next 12 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to traverse
decreasing SSTs and move into a more dry, stable air mass, and
encounter increasing southwesterly shear.  These increasingly
inhibiting environmental factors should cause the cyclone to
gradually weaken further, and degenerate into a remnant low in about
4 days,  as the large-scale models indicate.  The NHC forecast is
just an update of the previous one, and follows a blend of the HCCA
and IVCN multi-model intensity guidance.

The initial motion is a little to the right of the last
advisory package, and is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/8 kt.
A turn back to the west-northwest within the steering flow produced
by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should
occur during the next 24 hours.  After that, Juliette should
continue moving in this general direction, with some increase in
forward speed, through the 48 hour period.  Afterward, a westward
motion should begin as Juliette degenerates into a vertically
shallow depression, and ultimately, a remnant low, and becomes
steered by the low-level easterly flow.  The official forecast is a
little to the right of the previous advisory and lies between the
HCCA and TVCE consensus models, and is nudged a bit toward the GEFS
ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 20.2N 119.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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