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Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

The cloud pattern associated with Ivo has deteriorated
significantly during the past several hours, and deep convection
is now limited to a small cell near the center. The middle-level
circulation and the cloud debris have moved away from the center
due to northeasterly shear. Dvorak numbers continue to decrease, and
an average of these estimates yields an initial intensity of 40
kt.  This is consistent with a recent ASCAT pass which measured one
vector of 40 kt in the southern semicircle. The winds have subsided
considerably in the remainder of the circulation.  Ivo is already
moving over increasingly cooler waters. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for weakening, and Ivo is expected to become a
remnant low in 36 hours or even earlier and then dissipate in 2 or 3
days.

The best estimate of the initial motion is north-northwestward or
335 degrees at 9 kt, and Ivo should continue on that direction
steered by the flow around the subtropical high. A decrease in
forward speed is anticipated as the cyclone reaches weaker
steering currents. The NHC forecast is not different from the
previous one and is almost on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE.

Due to the persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated
with Ivo during the last few days, high swells are propagating
northeastward toward portions of the southern Baja California
peninsula as indicated by recent altimeter data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 21.4N 115.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 22.7N 116.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 24.3N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 26.0N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0600Z 27.2N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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