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Tropical Depression GIL (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
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Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082019
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019

Gil has been devoid of deep convection for about 9 hours now, and if
convection does return soon, then the system will be declared a
post-tropical remnant low on the next advisory. The initial
intensity of 25 kt is based on a Dvorak T-number of T1.5/25 kt from
TAFB and a 25-kt surface wind vector in a recent 1835Z ASCAT-B
scatterometer edge pass that caught the northwestern portion of the
circulation. Continued weakening is expected after Gil's
post-tropical transistion, and the system will likely dissipate by
late Monday.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/09 kt. Gil is embedded
within the easterly trade wind flow, and the cyclone is forecast to
maintain a general westward motion until dissipation occurs in 36
hours or so. The official track forecast is just an extension of the
previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 15.0N 126.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 15.0N 127.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1800Z 15.0N 129.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Friday, 13-Dec-2019 12:09:44 UTC