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Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082019
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Scatterometers are providing plenty of surprises today. ASCAT-B data
at 1716 UTC showed that the cyclone not only still has a
well-defined circulation, but also winds of 30-35 kt northeast of
the low-level center. Given that the instrument likely under sampled
the strongest winds, the initial intensity has been increased to 35
kts, and the system is now designated as Tropical Storm Gil.

Despite the slight increase in winds, the long-term prospects for
Gil have not improved. The tropical storm is strongly sheared due to
an upper-level trough located just to the north, and the GFS and
ECMWF forecast that the shear will remain high during the next few
days. A marginally dry surrounding environment will also likely
limit further strengthening. Given the higher initial winds of Gil,
the new NHC forecast carries the cyclone as a low-end tropical storm
for about a day, before showing gradual weakening. By 72 h, all of
the dynamical guidance indicates that Gil will open into a trough of
low pressure, and many of the models suggest it could happen well
before that.

The initial motion estimate is 285/10 kt. The center position of Gil
was adjusted slightly southward since the last advisory and the
official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. That said, there is
no change in the reasoning behind the forecast, and low-level
easterly flow should cause Gill to move generally westward for the
next couple of days at a steady pace. The official forecast closely
follows TVCE and HCCA until dissipation is expected after 48 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 15.0N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 15.2N 123.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 15.5N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 15.6N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 15.5N 129.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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