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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082019
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019

First light visible satellite images indicate that the disturbance
over the open eastern Pacific has developed a well-defined center
just west of an area of concentrated deep convection. Based on this,
advisories have been initiated for Tropical Depression Eight-E. An
earlier scatterometer pass measured winds of about 30 kt, and this
is the basis for the initial intensity.

Vertical shear of 20-25 kt that is currently displacing convection
off to the east of the low-level center is forecast to continue for
the next few days as the system moves under the base of a mid- to
upper-level trough. This shear is expected to prevent any
strengthening of the cyclone in the near term. In addition to
the shear, the depression will move into a drier airmass and begin
to move over more marginal SSTs in about 24 hours.  This should
result in weakening and the depression is expected to dissipate in a
couple of days.

Although the depression is currently moving west-northwestward at
about 9 kt, all of the global models forecast that it will turn
westward later today, steered primarily by low-level easterly winds.
The cyclone should then continue westward for the next day or two
until it dissipates.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 14.7N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 15.4N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 15.7N 124.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 15.9N 126.7W   20 KT  25 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven/Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 11-Dec-2019 12:09:46 UTC