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HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072019
0300 UTC WED JUL 31 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 122.6W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 122.6W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 122.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.7N 138.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.5N 143.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 148.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 122.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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