ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 30 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072019 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 04 2019 Under southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess 20 kt, deep convection continues to pulse in the northeast quadrant of Flossie, leaving the low-level circulation center (LLCC) exposed. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates ranged from 1.5 (25 kt) from SAB to 2.5 (35 kt) out of JTWC and HFO, while UW-CIMSS suggested an intensity of 33 kt. Thus, Flossie will be held as a 35 kt tropical storm. The first visible satellite images of the day revealed that the LLCC was a bit farther south than expected, and the initial motion is now 275/10 kt. The westward motion, which will continue into Monday, is likely due to the increasingly shallow system being steered by the low- to mid-level ridge to the north. As the ridge weakens Monday night, Flossie is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest near the main Hawaiian Islands and remain on that motion until dissipation. In light of recent trends and expectation that Flossie will be shallow, the track forecast was nudged southward again near TVCN and HCCA toward the middle of the guidance envelope. The gradual spin down of Flossie is expected to continue as the system nears Hawaii. An upper-level trough northwest of Hawaii will remain in place through the next several days, maintaining strong west-southwest winds aloft. As Flossie moves westward under these strong upper-level winds, vertical wind shear will increase from around 20 kt now to more than 30 kt tonight, causing Flossie to weaken. The intensity forecast was altered little from the prior advisory and takes Flossie down to a tropical depression by Monday and a remnant low on Tuesday. The forecast is in line with the dynamical and statistical guidance but keeps Flossie slightly stronger in the next 12 to 24 hours than nearly all guidance. Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Flossie. The updated track forecast calls for the system to be near or over portions of the state as a tropical depression late Monday and Tuesday, but given average forecast errors, a Tropical Storm Watch remains possible for portions of the state later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.0N 148.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 19.1N 150.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 19.5N 153.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 20.5N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 21.5N 157.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Wroe NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:52 UTC