ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 02 2019 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicates that Flossie has become less organized during the past several hours, with the convection decreasing and the mid-level center apparently displaced to the east of the low-level center. Based on the decay of the cloud pattern and just-received ASCAT data, the initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt. The initial motion is 285/15. As before, there has been little change to either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast. A subtropical ridge to the north should keep Flossie moving generally west-northwestward for another 2 or 3 days. After that, most of the guidance forecasts a northwestward turn followed by a northward turn due to an upper-level trough located northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The new official track forecast is close to the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus models. The forecast track takes Flossie over sea surface temperatures near 26C and through persistent shear, with the shear forecast to increase between 48-120 h as Flossie approaches the aforementioned upper-level trough. The intensity guidance responds to this environment by forecasting gradual weakening, and the new NHC forecast, which is again similar to the previous forecast, follows this scenario. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Flossie. Future information on this system can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2 and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO. For information specific to the Hawaiian Islands, users should continue to consult products from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.5N 139.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.0N 141.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.7N 144.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 19.3N 146.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.7N 148.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.5N 153.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 25.5N 156.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 29.0N 156.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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