ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 Flossie's overall appearance has not changed much over the past several hours. There continues to be some dry air evident over the northern semicircle that is entraining into the storm's circulation and the SHIPS guidance also suggests there is about 10 kt of northerly shear across the system. This has resulted in most of the deep convection being confined to the southern semicircle for much of tonight. The initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is in agreement with the latest subjective satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The motion over the past 12 hours has been just south of due west, or 265/15 kt. A turn to the west to west-northwest is expected by later today or tonight and this general motion is expected to continue for the remainder of the forecast period as Flossie is steered by a broad mid-level ridge to its north. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast track is very close to the previous one. Recently, deep convection has been trying to wrap around the northeastern portion of the circulation. If this trend were to continue, then strengthening would likely resume in the near term. There is about a 48-hour window remaining for Flossie to significantly intensify in a fairly favorable environment. The lastest SHIPS model Rapid Intensification Index (RII) shows a greater than 50 percent chance for Flossie to intensify by 25 kt over a 24 hour period. However, Flossie will need to consolidate its inner core soon if this rapid strengthening is to occur. The official NHC forecast calls for steady strengthening through much of today, followed by a 24 hour period of more rapid strengthening that would make Flossie a category 3 hurricane in 48 hours. After 48 hours, increasing shear and marginal SSTs are expected to cause a weakening trend to begin. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous forecast as well as the NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 12.2N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 12.3N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 12.8N 123.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 13.6N 126.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 14.3N 129.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 16.1N 134.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:52 UTC