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Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number  30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 03 2019
 
After deep convection pulsed near Erick's center overnight, 
satellite images this morning showed that the only significant
convection has been occurring in an outer rain band about 100 NM
northeast of the fully exposed low level circulation. High
clouds have been streaming over Erick's center, which is
indicative of the strong vertical shear currently impacting the
cyclone. The UW/CIMSS analysis at 1800 UTC showed a vertical shear
value of 45 KT from the west. Dvorak intensity estimates were 2.0/30
KT from JTWC and SAB, and 2.5/35 KT from PHFO. CIMSS ADT was 2.5/35
KT. The initial intensity for this advisory will be conservatively
held at 35 KT, though it would not be surprising if Erick is already
a tropical depression. 

Although sea surface temperatures are very warm along Erick's track,
the aforementioned strong vertical shear is expected to continue
over the next several days which should result in the continued spin
down of the cyclone. The current forecast has Erick becoming a
tropical depression later today or tonight, then becoming a
post-tropical cyclone some time on Sunday.

Erick's initial movement was 280/11 kt within a lower level steering
current. This westward motion should become west-northwestward later
today, then continue through the post-tropical cyclone phase on
Sunday and into early Monday. The overall track guidance is in
agreement with this scenario, though the forecast for this advisory
was nudged southward a bit towards the TABS guidance to reflect a
more shallow steering flow. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 17.3N 163.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 17.8N 165.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 18.7N 167.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 19.5N 169.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kodama
 
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