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Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number  29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
500 AM HST Sat Aug 03 2019
 
Deep convection briefly developed over the low level circulation
center of Erick overnight, with the tropical cyclone then
accelerating westward as the convection collapsed. Strong
west-southwesterly shear continues to affect the tropical cyclone,
with the latest UW-CIMSS vertical wind shear analysis indicating 45
knots of shear over the system. The latest current intensity
estimates from the satellite agencies were a unanimous 2.5/35 knots,
with the Advanced Dvorak Technique coming in at 2.7/39 knots. As a
result, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 35
knots, keeping Erick a Tropical Storm. The initial motion is
somewhat uncertain due to the interaction with the pulsing deep
convection overnight, and has been set at 275/12 knots.
 
Erick is being steered westward by a low-mid level ridge to the
north. The increasingly shallow system is expected to make a turn
toward the west-northwest shortly, with this general motion then
continuing through Sunday at a slightly slower forward speed. The
forecast track was adjusted to the south of previous official track
due to the acceleration westward overnight resulting from the
collapse of the deep convection that developed. The track forecast
is near or slightly to the south of the consensus guidance. 
 
Strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear will continue to
weaken Erick over the next couple days. The tropical cyclone is
expected to become a Tropical Depression later today, a remnant low
tonight, with dissipation into a trough expected Sunday night. The
intensity forecast was unchanged from the previous advisory and
remains closely aligned with the latest statistical guidance through
dissipation.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 17.1N 162.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 17.8N 164.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 18.8N 166.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 19.6N 167.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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