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Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number  25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
500 AM HST Fri Aug 02 2019
 
Deep convection has managed to develop over the low level
circulation center (LLCC) of Erick this morning, after the center
was exposed for much of the night. Strong west-southwesterly
vertical wind shear continues to affect the tropical cyclone
however, and the UW-CIMSS vertical wind shear analysis shows 42
knots of shear over the system. The latest subjective Dvorak current
intensities estimates from the satellite agencies came in at 3.0 (45
knots) from PHFO/SAB and 3.5 (55 knots) from JTWC, while the
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) from UW-CIMSS was 2.6 (37 knots).
Based on a blend of these estimates the initial intensity of Erick
has been lowered to 45 knots with this advisory. Although the center
was difficult to locate overnight due to high level cloud cover
moving over the LLCC, a timely GPM pass at 1136Z and a VIIRS
day/night band pass at 1140Z assisted in locating the center. The
motion has been set at 285/12 knots.
 
Erick is forecast to track west-northwest through tonight around the
southwestern periphery of a large subtropical ridge. A turn toward
the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected over the weekend
as the tropical cyclone begins to interact with a digging upper
level trough in the vicinity of 165W. The LLCC may deviate slightly
north and/or south of the forecast track at times due to bursts of
deep convection resulting from the system passing over increasingly
favorable sea surface temperatures and higher ocean heat content
values. It should be noted however, that conditions will remain
extremely hostile, and intensification is not expected. The latest
forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast and
was closely aligned with the latest TVCN and HCCA track consensus
guidance.
 
Strong vertical wind shear will continue to hammer Erick over the
next several days. Despite the shear, periodic bursts of deep
convection will likely result in slow weakening of the tropical
cyclone. Erick is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression by
Sunday, and become a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night.
Dissipation into a trough is now forecast to occur by Monday night.
The intensity forecast was lowered slightly initially, but remains
very close to the previous official forecast tonight through the
weekend. This intensity forecast remains roughly a blend of the
latest statistical and dynamical intensity consensus guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 16.8N 157.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 17.2N 159.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 17.9N 161.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 18.9N 163.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 19.9N 164.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 21.3N 166.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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