ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 24 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062019 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 01 2019 Deep convection remains well to the northeast of the low level circulation center (LLCC) of Erick this evening due to persistent strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 37 knots as depicted by the latest UW-CIMSS vertical wind shear analysis. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensities estimates from the satellite agencies came in at 3.5 (55 knots) from PHFO/SAB and 4.0 (65 knots) from JTWC, while the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) from UW-CIMSS was 3.7 (59 knots). These estimates in combination with the degradation in satellite appearance warrants lowering the initial intensity of Erick to 55 knots with this advisory. Although the center is difficult to locate in conventional infrared satellite imagery, shortwave infrared imagery was useful in determining the center location. The motion has been set at 290/11 knots. Erick is forecast to track west-northwestward over the next couple days around the southwestern periphery of a large subtropical ridge. Beyond 48 hours, a turn toward the northwest is expected at a slower forward speed as the tropical cyclone begins to interact with a digging upper level trough in the vicinity of 165W. The LLCC may deviate slightly north of the forecast track at times due to bursts of deep convection resulting from the system passing over increasingly favorable sea surface temperatures and higher ocean heat content values. It should be noted however, that conditions remain extremely hostile, and intensification is not expected. The latest forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast and is closely aligned with the latest TVCN and HCCA track consensus guidance. Strong vertical wind shear will continue to hammer Erick over the next several days, with rapid weakening expected to continue tonight, followed by slow weakening thereafter. Erick is expected to become a tropical depression by Sunday, a post-tropical remnant low by Monday and dissipate into a trough by Tuesday. The intensity forecast was left virtually unchanged, and is roughly a blend of the latest statistical and dynamical intensity consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.4N 155.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 16.8N 157.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.4N 159.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 18.3N 161.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.3N 163.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.1N 166.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 22.0N 167.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:49 UTC