ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 22 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062019 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 01 2019 The satellite presentation of Erick continues to gradually degrade under southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt. An area of persistent deep convection and elevated lightning activity is holding near the core, but a series of microwave passes at 1328, 1513, 1621, and 1632 UTC suggest that the tropical cyclone is becoming tilted with height due to the wind shear. Subjective Dvorak and CIMSS ADT current intensity numbers ranged from 4.5 to 5.0, with the subjective Final T numbers coming in at 3.5 to 5.0. A blend of these estimates would suggest that Erick remains a 75 knot hurricane, but further degradation on satellite imagery since the Dvorak fix time compels lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt for this advisory. Due to the absence of an eye and the suspected tilting of the tropical cyclone with height, locating the low-level center has been challenging. However, earlier microwave passes and recent GOES-17 imagery suggest that overnight position estimates were too far north and west. After some adjustments, the initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A continued west-northwestward motion is expected to persist over the next 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest and a loss of forward speed as the low- to mid-level ridge steering Erick is weakened by an upper-level trough. The forecast track has changed little from the prior advisory, staying close to the middle of the guidance envelope near the UKMET. The spread in the guidance increases beyond 48 hours, though Erick will have already passed south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Steady weakening is expected during the next several days. Erick will be approaching an upper-level trough that will produce relentless vertical wind shear of around 30 kt. Since the philosophy remains unchanged, the intensity forecast closely follows the prior forecast. As a result, the official forecast is now a little more aggressive than all of the guidance in the next 24 hours, even though it remains close to the CTCI and SHIPS throughout most of the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.0N 153.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 16.4N 155.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 16.9N 158.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.5N 160.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.2N 162.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.9N 165.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.5N 168.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 22.6N 170.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Wroe NNNN
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