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Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The depression is struggling to become better organized. Visible
satellite imagery shows multiple low-level swirls moving about a
mean center of circulation, with the deep convection being confined
to the southwestern semicircle due to northeasterly shear. Both
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates indicate that
the system intensity remains 30 kt.

Since the exact center is somewhat difficult to locate, the initial
motion is a rather uncertain 345/08kt. There has been a slight
westward shift in the majority of the track guidance, and this is
possibly due to them steering a weaker system than previously
forecast. The depression is expected to continue to move
north-northwest for the next 24-36 hours between a weak mid-level
trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its
northeast. After 36 hours, the system should make a gradual
turn toward the west-northwest as the cyclone weakens and becomes
carried by the low-level steering currents.

There is a shrinking window of opportunity for the depression to get
its act together before it moves over SSTs below 26 C and into a
stable atmospheric environment in 24-36 hours. Additionally, the 15
to 20 kt of shear currently over the system may prevent it from
intensifying any further. However, the official forecast calls for
the depression to intensify slightly over marginal SSTs into a
weak tropical storm tonight, followed by a weakening trend beginning
in about 24 hours. The cyclone should weaken into a remnant low by
48 hours and then dissipate late this week. The intensity forecast
through 24 hours remains the same as the previous advisory, but
it has been lowered beyond 24 hours and is in agreement with the
majority of the intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 16.7N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 17.8N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 19.1N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 20.2N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z 22.1N 121.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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