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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042019
300 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

The depression has been devoid of significant convection since early
Saturday evening. Even in the convective maximum period, the system
has only been able to muster intermittent individual cells producing
anvils that are being subsequently blown west of the circulation by
about 20 kt of easterly shear. A recent scatterometer pass showed
peak winds of around 25 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and this is
the initial advisory intensity. The stable environment ahead of the
cyclone is not conducive for its longevity and it will likely become
a remnant low later today. The remnant low should dissipate within a
couple of days.

The motion continues west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause a turn
toward the west later today or tonight. The official track forecast
is essentially the same as the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 18.2N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 18.5N 116.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/0600Z 18.8N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1800Z 18.8N 120.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

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