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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042019
900 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

The depression lost essentially all of its deep convection a few
hours ago, as strong easterly shear has continued to disrupt the
system.  Recently, a few cells have formed near the center.  Since
the cyclone is over marginally warm sea surface temperatures,
additional new convection could still re-develop in the
circulation overnight.  However, it seems likely that the system
will degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours.

The motion continues west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt.  A low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause a turn
toward the west tomorrow, and eventually a west-southwestward
motion is likely as the shallow circulation follows the low-level
tradewind flow.  The official track forecast is somewhat south of
the dynamical model consensus, and close to the previous NHC track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 17.7N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 18.5N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1200Z 18.6N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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