ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019 500 AM HST Thu Jul 04 2019 Satellite images indicate that Barbara continues to gradually weaken. Convection in the eyewall is becoming less intense, with eye temperatures slowly falling. A consensus of the latest satellite estimates suggests 100 kt as the initial wind speed. The hurricane is entering an environment that will likely promote rapid weakening during the next couple of days. Barbara is forecast to traverse sub-26C waters and encounter increasing southwesterly shear, which would help to mix in drier air from the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Thus, the cyclone should weaken to a tropical storm by 36 hours and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone around the time it enters the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC prediction is similar to the previous one and is a bit lower than the model consensus. Barbara has turned northwestward recently, and is moving about 310/10 kt. This general path is forecast until tomorrow when a mid-level ridge builds to north of the cyclone, causing a west-northwestward motion. As Barbara weakens, it should turn westward on Saturday, steered by the low-level flow. Model guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and no significant changes were required to the previous forecast. All of the model dissipate the cyclone east of the Hawaiian Islands, although the remnants could move across that area in about 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 16.0N 130.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.0N 131.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.1N 133.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 18.9N 135.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 19.2N 137.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 19.0N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 18.8N 150.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:44 UTC