ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Alvin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 800 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Somewhat surprisingly, Alvin has strengthened into a hurricane this evening. The diminutive system is exhibiting a rather symmetric CDO with very deep convection bursting near the center. Microwave images show a small eye about 10 n mi in diameter. Subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB, along with objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, support a current intensity of 65 kt. Alvin is not expected to maintain its intensity for very long. Within 12 to 24 hours, the cyclone should encounter significantly stronger southwesterly shear and SSTs below 24 deg C. These hostile environmental factors should bring about rapid weakening, as supported by essentially all of the numerical guidance. Alvin is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday. The hurricane is moving a little to the right and slightly faster than previous estimates, with an initial motion of about 305/14 kt. Alvin should continue to move near the western periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 48 hours, with the weakening cyclone gradually turning toward the left and decelerating. The official track forecast is very close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 17.4N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 20.9N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 21.5N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:42 UTC