ZCZC HFOTCDCP5 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Ema Discussion Number   6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012019
1100 AM HST Sun Oct 13 2019
 
Deep convection near Ema has dissipated over the past several hours.
The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 35 kt from
HFO, and 35 kt from JTWC and SAB. I have lowered the initial
intensity for this advisory to 30 kt. Ema is downgraded to a
tropical depression.
 
With the tropical cyclone remaining shallow, the primary steering
mechanism for now is a surface high centered far to the northeast of
the main Hawaiian Islands. The initial motion estimate for this
advisory is 310/10 kt. Ema is expected to turn towards the north
northwest over the next 24 hours as it rounds the edge of the
subtropical ridge. Beyond than, Ema is expect to track back toward
the northwest as a new high build in from the west. Strong southwest
vertical wind shear is forecast to remain over Ema. As a result, the
latest forecast continues to show slow weakening of the system
during the next 24 hours. Ema is forecast to weaken to a
post-tropical remnant low within 36 hours, followed by dissipation.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 23.0N 167.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 24.0N 168.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 27.0N 169.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 29.1N 170.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Donaldson
 
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