ZCZC HFOTCDCP5 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Ema Discussion Number 5 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012019 500 AM HST Sun Oct 13 2019 There was a brief burst of deep convection that covered most of the low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Ema for a few hours earlier tonight. The LLCC is now completely exposed, but a few thunderstorms are still developing more than 45 n mi north of the LLCC. An earlier scatterometer pass from 0727Z confirmed that there were still 35 kt winds in the northeast quadrant of Ema. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and HFO indicate the intensity is near 35 kt. Therefore, we will maintain the initial intensity for this advisory at 35 kt. With the tropical cyclone remaining shallow, the primary steering mechanism is a surface high centered far to the northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands. The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 300/9 kt. Most of the reliable guidance remains in close agreement on the near-term track forecast. This guidance shows Ema will likely start to move toward the northwest at a slightly faster forward speed during the next 12 hours. This northwest motion is forecast to persist through the next 24 to 36 hours. Ema remains north of a mid- to upper-level ridge axis, which keeps strong southwesterly vertical wind shear over the LLCC. As a result, the latest forecast continues to show a steady spin-down of the tropical cyclone during the next 12 to 24 hours. The intensity forecast indicates Ema may weaken to a tropical depression during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that, it is forecast to weaken to a post-tropical remnant low within 36 hours, followed by dissipation. Note that Ema poses no direct threat to the main Hawaiian Islands. However, since there is still uncertainty in the rate of weakening and the eventual path of Ema, a Tropical Storm Watch remains posted for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 22.2N 166.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 23.7N 167.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 26.1N 168.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 28.4N 168.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Houston NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:10:18 UTC