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BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 68.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

For information on wind and coastal flooding hazards, see products
issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa
was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 68.2 West. The storm
is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward
the east-northeast is expected later today, followed by a gradual
increase in forward speed on Sunday and Monday.  On the forecast
track, Melissa will gradually move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
and New England coasts.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Melissa is
expected to become a remnant low by tonight or early Sunday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Wind gusts to 40 mph are possible across portions of Cape
Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket during the next few hours.

COASTAL FLOODING:  Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur
along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New
England coast today around times of high tide.

SURF:  Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S.
east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada.
These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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