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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with
Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with many curved
bands and a newly formed central dense overcast.  In fact, an
overnight AMSR2 microwave pass showed that Lorenzo already had a
very small central core.  The initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt,
in accordance with the latest TAFB classification.

Conditions seem to be ripe for further intensification given that
the storm is over fairly warm waters, with humid mid-level air, and
weak/moderate shear.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensification index is
giving a 53 percent chance of Lorenzo intensifying 25 kt during the
next 24 hours, which seems very reasonable since it now has a tight
inner core, and after noting the storm just strengthened 25 kt
during the previous 24 hours.  Thus the intensity forecast is raised
from the last one, showing the initial period of very quick
strengthening, and is at the upper edge of the guidance.  It is
worth noting that all of the global models show Lorenzo becoming a
fairly large and powerful hurricane within the next 5 days, and the
new wind radii forecast reflects this likelihood.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. This general
course is expected for the next couple of days while Lorenzo moves
beneath the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.  A break in the
ridge should occur in a few days over the central Atlantic, causing
the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and north-northwestward
over the weekend. The new forecast is shifted slightly northward
in the short term, but is close to the previous NHC prediction
thereafter, closest to the corrected-consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 12.0N  28.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 12.6N  30.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 13.3N  32.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 13.9N  35.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 14.4N  38.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 17.0N  41.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 20.0N  44.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 23.0N  46.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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