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Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
200 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 63.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.  Additional warnings and watches may be required
for portions of these areas on later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 63.6 West.  Karen is now
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today.  A turn toward the north is
expected on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight.  On
Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL:  Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Barbados...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch, storm totals 2 to 3
inches.

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 8
inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeast Venezuela...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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