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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. Jerry is forecast to turn
northward on Sunday and then gradually accelerate northeastward
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little overall change in strength is forecast for the next
several days, but short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on
data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft which is currently flying a
research mission around Jerry.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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