ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 62.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM N OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 62.8 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  The hurricane is
forecast to recurve over the western Atlantic during the next few
days.  On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will pass well
north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, pass well
east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over
the western Atlantic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the several
days, and Jerry could remain a hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over
Barbuda, St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.  This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is also forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1
to 2 inches, with maximum amounts of 3 inches, across the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas during the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN