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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 74.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Volusia-Brevard County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the poorly defined center of the
disturbance was located by satellite and surface observations near
latitude 24.1 North, longitude 74.9 West.  The disturbance is moving
northwestward at about 3 mph (5 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through the
weekend.  On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move
across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or
over the east coast of Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression
or a tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwest Bahamas by late today.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum amounts around 7
inches.

The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida through southeastern
Georgia...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwest Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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