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Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS FERNAND A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FERNAND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 96.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...265 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.52 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the eastern coast of Mexico and the lower
Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 96.3 West.  Fernand
is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue tonight with some decrease in forward speed.  A
motion toward the west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed
by a motion toward the northwest on Wednesday night.  On the
forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the
northeastern coast of Mexico on Wednesday night.

Preliminary data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
Fernand is stregthening and the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is possible before Fernand moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the west of the center.

The preliminary minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter plane was 1000 mb (29.52 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area late tonight or early Wednesday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Squalls with
gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area
along portions of the lower Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the
Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas
through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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