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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
700 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 94.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* La Pesca to Barra El Mezquital

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.5 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
today. A motion toward the west or west-northwest is forecast on
Wednesday.  This motion could bring the system near or over the
coast of northeastern Mexico late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast is forecast during the next
48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical
cyclone later today and become a tropical storm by tonight.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has been increasing in
organization this morning, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area during the day Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the
Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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