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Tropical Storm FERNAND (Text)


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Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

An ASCAT-C scatterometer pass around 0310 UTC indicated a few wind
vectors of 38-40 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the circulation.
Allowing for some undersampling by the instrument, the initial
intensity is held at 45 kt. The overall convective pattern in radar
and satellite imagery has changed little over the past 6 hours.

Fernand's motion is slowly westward at 270/05 kt. Fernand is
expected to be steered westward this morning by a broad deep-layer
ridge that extends across the entire southern United States,
followed by a west-northwestward motion tonight and Thursday. As a
result, the cyclone is forecast to move inland over northeastern
Mexico by this evening, and then dissipate quickly over the rugged
terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The NHC forecast
track is similar to the previous advisory track and essentially lies
down the middle of track guidance envelope.

Fernand has been experiencing moderate easterly to southeasterly
vertical wind shear and ingesting dry air in the southeastern
semicircle. These unfavorable conditions are forecast to continue
until landfall occurs in about 12 hours, resulting in little if any
additional strengthening.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico. Radar estimates from the NOAA Doppler weather radar
in Brownsville, Texas (KBRO), indicate that up to 10 inches of
rainfall may have already occurred across portions of northeastern
Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 23.1N  96.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 23.5N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/0600Z 24.0N  99.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 15-Oct-2019 12:09:18 UTC