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Potential Tropical Cyclone SEVEN (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Overnight scatterometer wind data and infrared satellite imagery
indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the
west-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming
better defined, but still lacks a well-defined center. However, the
scatterometer indicated surface winds of 30-33 kt in the
northwestern quadrant and observations from Buoy 42002 north of the
center have been indicating wind speeds of 25-27 kt at 4-meter
elevation. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on
Potential Cyclone Seven. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain
260/06 kt. The general motion of the broad low is expected to be
westward, being steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the
southern United States. It is possible, however, that an apparent
west-northwestward motion could occur if the low-level center
redevelops farther north into the deep convection. The NHC forecast
track is similar to, but a little north of, the consensus model
TVCN.

Some slight strengthening is forecast during then next 36-48 hours
before the low moves inland over northeastern Mexico. However, the
broad and large circulation should prevent any rapid intensification
from occurring. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
IVCN consensus model.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 23.5N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  03/1800Z 23.4N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  04/0600Z 23.4N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 23.7N  97.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 24.3N  98.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Page last modified: Saturday, 19-Oct-2019 12:09:16 UTC