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Tropical Depression ERIN (Text)


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Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062019
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

Erin has become less organized this morning with the center exposed
and becoming more removed from the remaining deep convection.
Satellite intensity estimates have decreased and a blend of these
support an initial wind speed of 30 kt.  The northwesterly shear
that has been affecting Erin is forecast to decrease somewhat later
today and tonight, but given the current structure of the system,
little overall change in intensity is anticipated during that time.
If convection does not re-develop closer to the center later today,
Erin could become post-tropical. An alternate scenario is for the
circulation to become elongated and lose definition as a mid-
latitude trough approaches from the west.  The global models suggest
that the trough is likely to help Erin or its remnants deepen
somewhat as an extratropical low on Thursday.  The NHC intensity
forecast follows suit and shows little change in strength today,
then indicates that Erin or its remnants will become an
extratropical gale by 36 hours.

Erin is now moving north-northwestward at 11 kt. The dynamical model
guidance is in good agreement on Erin turning northward and then
northeastward by Thursday ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude
trough.  Erin or its remnants are forecast to accelerate and reach
Nova Scotia in about 36 hours.  The guidance envelope has shifted
slightly westward, and the updated official forecast has been
adjusted accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 33.6N  72.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 35.5N  72.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 39.0N  70.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 43.8N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/1200Z 48.9N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Page last modified: Saturday, 19-Oct-2019 12:09:15 UTC