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Tropical Depression SIX (Text)


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Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062019
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

The cloud pattern has improved a little since yesterday, and in
fact, it looks more tropical on satellite today. The depression,
however, continues to be sheared with the low-level center to the
north of the convection.  Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB
still support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The northwesterly shear
currently affecting the depression is expected to continue, and only
a small increase in intensity is anticipated in the next couple of
days. After that time, the shear will increase as a mid-latitude
trough approaches from the west, and the circulation will be over
cooler waters.  This should favor the cyclone to become
extratropical and then become absorbed by a larger extratropical low
by the end of the forecast period.

The depression has been moving very little, and it appears that
during the past couple hours it has been meandering northward at
about 2 kt.  No significant motion is expected today with a slow
north-northwestward or northward drift beginning tonight. In about
a day, the southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching mid-latitude
trough should steer the cyclone northeastward with increasing
forward speed over the North Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is
very close to the multimodel consensus TVCA and not significantly
different from the previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 31.2N  71.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 31.3N  71.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 32.9N  71.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 35.0N  70.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 38.0N  68.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 44.5N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/1200Z 50.0N  52.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Page last modified: Monday, 14-Oct-2019 12:09:16 UTC