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Tropical Depression SIX (Text)


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Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062019
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

The depression remains poorly organized this evening with the edge
of the cyclone's deep convection displaced nearly 90 n mi southeast
of the low level center due to northwesterly shear. A recent
scatterometer pass indicates an initial intensity of 30 kt, with
winds of 25 kt or greater being confined to the southeastern
quadrant.

The low level center has been drifting eastward this evening and the
initial motion is 100/3 kt. The steering flow surrounding the
cyclone is expected to stay weak for the next 24 hours, resulting in
a slow, erratic motion. After 24 hours, a mid-latitude trough
crossing the eastern United States will accelerate the system to the
northeast, keeping it well to the east of the United States coast.
The latest forecast is similar to the previous one, and near the
corrected consensus HCCA.

The wind shear over the depression is forecast to decrease somewhat
over the next 48 hours while the system remains over warm waters.
This should allow for the depression to intensify into a tropical
storm during that time. After 48 hours, strong upper level
southwesterly winds ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough
should initiate a gradual extratropical transition of the
cyclone.  After 96 hours, the cyclone is expected to be absorbed by
a larger system embedded in the westerlies.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 31.5N  72.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 31.6N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 32.1N  71.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 33.4N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 35.5N  70.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 41.3N  65.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 48.1N  57.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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Page last modified: Sunday, 13-Oct-2019 12:09:17 UTC